2024 Vibe Check + Prediction Review
An overall assessment on 2024 and a look back at how much I did get wrong
By the end of last year, I wrote about my special way of summarizing the past year. Many like end-of-year complications or one-word summaries, I prefer describing it as a metaphor or theme.
2023 Vibe Check
For 2024, the vibes are a chaotic mix. We experienced both highs and lows, brat to kakistocracy, very demure to Raygun’s awkward moves. Politically, it has been a turbulent year from conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine to the elections around the world, which saw voters mostly choosing to kick out their incumbent leaders in exchange for giving opposition figures a new chance.
If I had to describe the year as a giant theme, it would be like a big party where you invite many people to come and have fun. You already know there will be fun and games, which manifest in the form of elections. Based on the participants, you know which games have the winners set in stone, while the others are more exciting because you don’t know what will happen next. At the same time, you have to monitor what else is going on at the party, from the occasional shouting to the available food at the dinner table, because blink and you might miss the good stuff going on in the side.
The big feature of 2024 is that there is too much going on. Trust me, as the person who does weekly reviews of everything happening around the world, and has to update my articles on nearly an hourly basis, you have no idea what it’s like suddenly adding content wherever I go because there’s a new development in the Middle East, or the US election had another crazy twist and turn. Remember what happened this summer!? I sure can’t recall most of it, and I wrote an entire article in late August detailing the craziest things happening between June to August!
Unlike last year in which I have to recall the general stories of the year, I’m going to make my end-of-year summary through my 2024 predictions. If you remember or are already subscribed to this Substack at the beginning of the year, you might remember I have published this piece making my predictions for the upcoming year.
Looking back at it, oh boy how wrong and naive I was when this entire chaos started. On the first day of 2024, there was a massive earthquake in Japan, and that’s one of the slightly less depressing headlines!
The US 2024 election has repeatedly proven to defy my predictions and expectations. I thought Joe Biden was going to stay in the race against Trump, he dropped out in July and was replaced with Kamala Harris. I thought the Democrats were going to win the presidency and Congress, they lost all of it. I thought Trump’s criminal trials would become a liability, and as the popular vote showed, America is perfectly fine with voting for a convicted felon. I did predict traditionally Democratic stronghold demographics like African Americans and Hispanics might vote the other way, they did, but many to Donald Trump. Third-party candidates did not make as much of an impact as I had expected, but they certainly benefited from the Gaza war in siphoning off progressive and Arab voters. Abortion and democracy failed to galvanize more voters to vote for Harris, while immigration has particularly struck a chord with voters from across the racial and political spectrum. Culture war issues did make a sizable impact, specifically on trans rights.
The global economy did recover and avoided a recession, with the US stock market continuing to see record highs throughout the year thanks to developments in big tech and a booming economy under Biden. However, macroeconomics in America does not compute with microeconomics, with voters feeling blue about the economy despite continuous spending. Inflation was a useful political tool for Donald Trump, as he hammered the issue to the Democrats and partly contributed to their defeat.
Hong Kong’s economy has struggled to recover lost ground over the past few years, as the city’s property, tourism, and retail market has still not improved. Despite stimulus plans and government policies that have attempted to boost prospects in those three sectors, there are not many signs of positive recovery concerning new tourists or homebuyers.
China’s economy is also down in the dumps, as spiraling deflation and poor-performing statistics are not good signs for a nation bracing for Trump’s new tariffs next year. However, China’s deflation is certainly good news for Hong Kong travelers, who have picked up the bargain juxtaposed to the city’s inflation-adjusted prices. Many Hong Kongers are lured by cheaper prices offered in Shenzhen, but hot trends came and went for certain supermarket chains as the year progressed. For Hong Kong businesses, many either have raised prices or closed their stores.
Sadly, the area where my predictions were mostly correct was the conflict in the Middle East. The war did not fade over the past few months, it expanded as Israel fired missiles and launched targeted assassinations of Hezbollah members, and escalations between Iran and Israel have seen missile exchanges between bitter enemies. Within Gaza, the tolls of war did not end as more than 45,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 7, 2023. Netanyahu still clung to power, despite numerous instances where public pressure within Israel had threatened to stop him. Even though Israel’s on the international stage has nearly collapsed, culminating in South Africa’s genocide case at the ICJ that continued throughout the year, Netanyahu’s domestic popularity has risen after the attacks on Hezbollah. Both Hamas and Hezbollah have been severely damaged by Israel’s military capabilities, and Iran’s failing control over its proxies inadvertently led to the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, another blow to Iran’s power over the region.
For the Russo-Ukrainian war, the war has taken its toll on both countries. For Ukraine, the country’s infrastructure and military personnel have felt the brunt of the impact over the past year, made worse by Western countries that are more reluctant to send aid to the war-torn country. Donald Trump’s re-election made it more unlikely that Ukraine would be getting more lethal aid from America soon, as the Biden administration’s efforts in supplying aid have been hampered by Republican opposition. Despite that, Ukraine invaded and occupied a small section of Russian territory in the Kursk region. On Russia’s side, despite Putin insisting the war is turning to their side, and Russian forces making small gains in certain territories, the death toll is not negligible. One of the biggest developments is Putin cozying up with North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong Un, and North Korean forces joining Russian troops in pushing back the Ukranians at the Kursk region, which has delivered mixed results for Putin’s troops.
It was a fun year for global elections, as we have seen everything from disputed election outcomes in Venezuela and Romania to widely expected results from authoritarian countries like Russia. Overall, there has been an anti-establishment shift in voter sentiment, fueled by post-pandemic inflation and cost-of-living struggles (More on this in a future article). Many countries, like the UK, have either voted to kick ruling parties out of power. Others like Japan, India, and South Africa have seen voters significantly diminish the political strength of ruling parties, by either forcing them to form minority governments or dragging their majorities down by a sizable margin. However, what comes next for these new governments is everyone’s guess, and whether they can perform as well in the next election is up in the air.
Finally, it has been a notable year for science and technology. AI certainly has carried the business world into new profits and expectations, especially Nvidia and its sky-high stock prices at the time of writing. However, AI has created controversies like discontent among internet users over AI-generated content, as well as sparking legal fights with figures such as Scarlette Johanson. We didn’t get a ChatGPT-style smartphone, the closest we have is an Apple 16 with Apple Intelligence upgrades, which is underwhelming for many users like yours truly. Deepfakes and disinformation did play a role in influencing elections, but thankfully not as damaging as Elon Musk manipulating X as a propaganda machine.
It was also a pretty exciting year for space. Despite Artemis II not getting the launch approval until 2026, there were several attempts by different groups to land on the Moon, most prominently Chang’e 6 bringing back samples from the far side of the Moon and influencing new research. SpaceX impressed many by chopstick-catching a giant Starship rocket booster, while Boeing messed up in space (Which is unusual given how many times it forked up in the skies this year) after issues with the Starliner spacecraft caused astronauts Butch Willmore and Suni Williams to be stranded in the ISS until March 2025.
Guess I missed the mark in 2024, but it was an interesting year nonetheless. I will be back with 2025 predictions very soon because failure of imagination is always a good teacher, even if it acts like a jerk.