2024 Predictions
Note to self: Check back on December 2024 for how badly I got things wrong
For seasoned political and news nerds, every year is accompanied by the obligatory prediction round before the year starts progressing. When it comes to peeking through the metaphorical crystal ball, some events are certain, while others are not. Regardless, I want to try shaking my magic prediction ball and put down my predictions about what will come next.
US Election
Joe Biden will win the 2024 General Election against Donald Trump by a slim margin, running a platform on democracy and the alternative to Trump and his authoritarian tendencies and ambitions.
Donald Trump has a 99.99% shot at becoming the GOP frontrunner despite Colorado and Maine blocking the former president from the ballot which will be rejected by the federal Supreme Court. He will win big during the primaries which will obliterate the remaining political career of Ron DeSantis and soon enough Nikki Haley will support Trump after dropping out from a distant second place.
Joe Biden will cling on to the swing states that have voted for him in 2020. Still, it will be a close run as Trump will get more votes (including traditionally Democratic stronghold demographics like African Americans and Hispanics) and some votes might be siphoned off to third-party candidates like Cornell West or RFK Jr, a No Labels ticket could also be dangerous.
Voters will see Trump’s criminal indictments and possible conviction(s) as a liability moving forward, and ignore Biden’s age issue compared to the other option that is just three years younger and elect the incumbent more as a vote against Trump than a vote in support of Biden.
Democrats will regain the House, while there is a narrow path for them to win in the Senate. Abortion issues will be an electoral vote winner for Democrats, while immigration and crime will continue to be hot topics for potential GOP voters. Woke issues will be less trendy, as many will experience fatigue over culture war battles.
Economy and Consumer Sentiment
The global economy will recover and achieve a soft-ish landing. The US slowing inflation will be beneficial to Biden as consumer sentiment returns, a critical achievement to be reached since this year is an election year, and many voters vote with their wallets. Look out for Saudi Arabia, because it will exert its influence with OPEC on the US election by raising gas prices, the sudden shift in consumer sentiment can help Donald Trump reenter the White House through economic means, as voters return to the doom and gloom vibe perception of the country’s economy.
Hong Kong’s economy will stagnate if not see a slight decline due to the rising deficit and stock market losses extending from an already disappointing performance in 2023 and the years before. In China, the economy will continue its gradual slowdown but things will look better down in Shenzhen thanks to Hong Kong consumer sentiment. More Hong Kongers will be lured by cheaper prices offered in Shenzhen which will boost local supermarket brands and the local economy, but it will also create a big headache for the Hong Kong government as it makes a tricky balance between buying local and integrating the city into the Greater Bay Area. Local businesses will continue to be badly affected by a weakening tourism sector and the growing appeal of mainland shopping.
Israel Hamas War
The war will gradually fade after Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire deal moderated by either Egypt or Qatar, but an equally likely circumstance will be the war continuing to play out as Netanyahu and Hamas both see self-benefits by prolonging the war.
On Israel’s side, Netanyahu will barely cling to power as he continues the war throughout the year, or gets removed from office either after a ceasefire or growing sentiment inside his coalition government and the public who are already against the current Prime Minister. The sentiment will have a wide range of support between ardent pro-war Israelis, peace-seeking Israelis, and in between are people who want to secure the release of hostages, including their families.
Hamas will likely still maintain a framework to exist but see significant losses in personnel, and the group possibly will still keep some hostages by the end of 2024 (I know, it is depressing). But it would be nothing compared to the towering civilian casualties which would be a main motivator for calls for a ceasefire. Pressure will build among the international community calling for an imminent bilateral ceasefire, but doubts will remain over whether Israel, or more importantly Hamas, will respect the terms of the ceasefire before fighting again. The US will be inclined to be more critical of Israel’s war efforts in public as its reputation on the world stage might be damaged by accusations of a double standard between Gaza and Ukraine.
For a two-state solution, under current Israeli leadership and the current form of Hamas, it is highly unlikely we would even get to the stage of discussing the future of Gaza and the West Bank by the end of 2024.
Despite fears of escalations into a regional war, the confrontations between the IDF and Hezbollah will not escalate as both the US and Iran are hesitant on an evolving and broadening conflict, while the Houthi Rebels and their pirate act will come and go as time moves on.
Russia and Ukraine’s War
As the war reaches its stalemate point at the end of 2023, there will be pressure in Kyiv. One, should Ukraine hold an election during wartime? And second, how to guarantee victory? Many inside Ukraine still believe in victory against the Russian invaders, but morale is starting to drop inside Ukraine over a growing and painful stalemate. While in the West, the biggest problem is guaranteeing more aid to Ukraine. In the US, Joe Biden is likely to compromise with Republicans on border security to secure more lethal aid to Ukraine. While in the EU, member states need and will be working to circumvent opposition from Hungary and its leader Victor Orban, who is close to Putin and is an outlier against the vast majority in support of Ukraine.
Unless there are unforeseen circumstances, Vladimir Putin will win his country’s elections in March. Based on recent reports, Putin is interested in talks of a ceasefire in exchange for guaranteeing himself bragging rights. After the election, Putin will be open to peace talks and a potential ceasefire deal as he is brutally aware of the war’s damage to the country’s economy and the army. But there is also the chance Putin might prolong the war after the US election, with Russia wanting Trump to win the election as he promised to end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, which many see as Trump giving Putin the green light to do whatever it wants with Ukraine.
Global Elections
The election bonanza in 2024 is wide-ranging, here is a quick guess on a few important elections this year. In India, Modi and his BJP party will hold onto power when India votes as recent elections show good performance. In South Africa, the ruling ANC party will see for the first time since Nelson Mandela that its party cannot hold on to a majority after years of scandals and corruption. While in European elections this year, brace for a surge from the right, more specifically the far-right reemerging from the dark shadows in a wave of populist outrage. Interestingly enough, although Canada is supposedly going to hold its elections in 2025, Justin Trudeau might hold the elections at the end of 2024, to try and connect the opposing conservatives with Donald Trump and Trumpism in the US.
One of the most consequential elections will be held in Taiwan in early January, which will see a likely chance the ruling DPP party will remain in power with William Lai being elected into power. If that happened, the victory would come true thanks to a mix of local sentiment and an opposition that did not successfully coalesce which fractured the vote between two candidates. Despite the language and rhetoric involved, China is unlikely to start a war to reunify Taiwan this year due to the risks involved. It is more likely to further isolate the island geopolitically to weaken its legitimacy as what others see as an independent state as well as enact more military drills to send a message to both the island and the US.
After the US election, the UK election can be the follow-up election for any political nerds. After more than a decade of rule under the Tories, Rishi Sunak will have to call an election sometime this year. It is more likely that the election will be held in May since an October election will be too close to the American election weeks later in November. Still, a December election or an early 2025 election in January could be likely as well, with Sunak trying to hit the snooze button as much as he can for the Tories to stay in power. In the end, the Labor Party will be the victor in the election. There might be a possibility Labor needs to form a minority government in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, but the more likely possibility is a landslide and Keir Starmer will become the new leader of Britain. The reason behind the prediction is due to two things. One, over the past year Rishi Sunak has not turned the fortune of the party back in its favor, while secondly, the polls have decisively shown a wide margin between Labor support and Tory support. Keir Starmer’s appeal to the political center, and even center-right voters will be a vote-winner for him, despite the far-left of his party complaining and criticizing him, not to mention he has the benefit of the wide margin which can allow him to lose some far-left supporters to other parties while achieving a net gain with potential Tory voters.
STEM
It will be another big year for AI after its Sputnik moment with ChatGPT and the blockbuster firing and rehiring of OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman. In 2024, the focus will be on two fronts. One, different AI companies and startups will catch on to the AI trend and public interest by developing more advanced models and implementing them in different devices. Look out for a ChatGPT-style smartphone soon as it marks another monumental achievement in the field of AI. However, the industry will have to face the demons it has created. Deepfakes and disinformation will spread wider and be less suspectable to traditional forms of disinformation thanks to microtargeting and its ability to convince people that it is the real deal. Not great given that more than 40 countries are holding elections this year, with the US election being the most susceptible to the impacts of deepfakes.
Space will also see an exciting year. Japan will join the country club in sending spacecraft to Mars, India will send a spacecraft to Venus, and NASA will also send a spacecraft to Juptier’s moon Europa. But the biggest attraction this year will be the Moon. In April, amateur astronomers and eclipse chasers will gather in North America to witness the last solar eclipse over the continent until 2044. China will launch the Chang’e 6 mission to collect samples on the far side of the Moon again but attached with instruments from other countries, but the most exciting mission will be the Artemis II mission. It will be the first mission since 1972 in which humans have gone back to the Moon, but for this mission astronauts will only fly into the Moon’s orbit. Despite achieving what humans have done before, the mission does have historic elements. It will be the first time a woman, an African American, and a Canadian (or non-American if you want) have traveled beyond the orbit of Earth!
While on a smaller scale prediction, Elon Musk might declare bankruptcy for Twitter. The platform X is not doing good with its profitability, and as a last resort Musk might use bankruptcy to get away with his losses.