What’s Next In The Middle East, New York’s Energetic Democratic Primary, And Some Miss Hong Kong Political Drama

A detailed recount mixed with meme comedy to mark our times at Week 25 of 2025 featuring source material from Gundam Gquuuuuux, Jentry Chau Vs The Underworld, Star Trek Lower Decks, and Hailey’s On It

Jun 30, 2025

Middle East War Watch - The New Wartime American President

By the beginning of the week, after examining the satellite footage, it turned out Iran’s nuclear program was not “completely and totally obliterated.” Who would have thought Trump lied!? After last Sunday’s emergency UN Security Council meeting to discuss a draft resolution by China, Russia, and Pakistan calling for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the IAEA and the EU held emergency meetings of their own to discuss how to de-escalate a boiling-hot crisis. Pakistan condemned Trump for bombing Iran, ironically just a day after recommending him for a Nobel Prize. With Israel and Iran continuing to trade missile strikes, Iran’s Fordow nuclear site was attacked by Israeli forces a day after the US strikes. As Iran plans to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the US has begun urging China to prevent Iran from shutting down the key trade route. Oil prices jumped up and stock futures sank right after the US strikes, which naturally led to the US President tweeting on Truth Social: “EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!” Meanwhile, NBC News reported Iran had warned Trump before the strikes that it might activate terrorist “sleeper cells” inside the US, which makes the fact that the counter-terrorism head is a 22-year-old college graduate even more reassuring.

Then, Qatar suddenly announced it was temporarily closing its airspace after getting information from Iran that it was about to launch missile strikes into the country. Soon after that, Iran launched missile strikes targeting the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, but was soon intercepted by Qatar’s Defense Ministry. Iran also fired missiles at US assets in Iraq. However, it quickly turned out the strikes were meant to retaliate but not escalate.

Iran said the missile attack matched the number of US bombs dropped last weekend, and Qatar said nobody was injured by the attack. That was soon confirmed by the US President, who thanked Iran for giving "early notice" on the “very weak” strikes. Trump also urged “Peace and Harmony” between Iran, the US, and Israel. Oil prices fell by more than 7% as investors dismissed a possible supply risk following Iran’s US airbase strike. Hours later, Trump says Israel and Iran have agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire” and congratulated both countries for “having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end” what he described as “THE 12 DAY WAR.” However, according to a senior Iranian official to CNN, Iran has not received any ceasefire proposal and sees no reason for one. As more information came out, Iran's foreign minister said they would stop their attacks, as long as Israel stops its airstrikes on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Israel urged people living in more parts of Tehran to evacuate.

By Tuesday midnight, Trump said the ceasefire was “now in effect,” warning the two parties, "Please do not violate it!" Israel then agreed to the ceasefire deal, with Netanyahu saying Israel has reached its war goals to eliminate Iran’s nuclear and missile threats. However, barely moments after that bit of news, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said he had ordered the IDF to strike Tehran, claiming Iran violated the ceasefire by firing missiles at the country. Iran denied the allegations, but it didn’t stop the conflict from rebooting. In Washington, an angry Donald Trump was furious with Iran and more with Israel, saying he’s “not happy” with America’s closest ally and said they “don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.” In the same pre-helicopter speech, Trump said he doesn’t want to see a regime change in Iran. On Truth Social, Trump said it would be a major violation if Israel conducts any more air strikes, and China can now buy oil from Iran even though his first administration and Biden’s term imposed a range of sanctions and enforcement mechanisms designed to make it significantly harder for China to purchase Iranian oil. The US president warned Israel to bring its pilots home “now” when Israeli warplanes were already en route. However, the attacks were agreed to be scaled back after a last-ditch call between Trump and Netanyahu. Behind the scenes, Trump told Netanyahu not to expect further US offensive action after the strikes on Iran, telling him to stop fighting and return to the negotiating table. According to a report by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the US strikes on Iran only delayed its nuclear program by months. By nightfall in the Middle East, the ceasefire seemed to be holding as there was no evidence that either side had launched attacks, and both sides were claiming victory. In Congress, the House overwhelmingly voted against an impeachment motion regarding Trump’s actions in Iran, while the White House postponed giving classified briefings to members of Congress regarding the strikes. In Gaza, at least 40 more Palestinians were killed seeking aid in Gaza, raising the death toll in total to more than 500.

When asked about the initial classified report that said the strikes only set back Tehran’s nuclear program by a few months, Trump insisted the strikes caused "total obliteration" that set Iran’s progress back “decades,” even though he acknowledged the intelligence was “inconclusive” and preliminary. This also comes as Trump posted a video of B-2 bombers set to the song of “Bomb Iran,” master of diplomacy right there. Moreover, Trump denied reports that Iran had been given previous notice of the US bombings before it happened. After the recent leaks undermined the president’s claims about the extensive damage of the Iran strikes, the Trump administration plans to limit intelligence sharing with Congress in an unprecedented move. On Iran, Trump said the US will speak to Iran next week, and they “may” sign a nuclear deal. Trump also heavily defended Netanyahu on Truth Social, calling the Israeli PM’s trial “a witch hunt” and urging the corruption case against Netanyahu to be dropped. In other headlines, Iran’s parliament votes to halt co-operation with the UN’s nuclear watchdog IAEA, the Iranian regime executed 3 people that they suspect were spies for Israel, Israeli forces killed three Palestinians after a settlers attack at a town in the West Bank, while seven Israeli soldiers were killed in a Hamas attack in the southern Gaza Strip.

In the first public statement by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei since the US strikes, he claimed the US gained nothing from the attack and offered congratulations for the country’s victory over Israel. Back in Washington, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed the US strikes "significantly damaged the nuclear programme, setting it back by years,” but was unable to provide new assessments of the state of Iran’s nuclear program or the damage to its sites. During the press conference, Hegseth lashed out at reporters over their coverage of the strikes, shouting that they should cover other issues, such as fighter pilots sitting for hours on a bomber plane. In Congress, a classified briefing by the White House on the impact of the Iran strikes left senators split, with Republicans confirming their affirmations on the mission’s success while some Democrats complained that it did not fully answer their questions. According to a new book, Iran nearly succeeded in orchestrating an assassination on the former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo when he was in Europe in 2022. In the US Senate, Republicans reject limiting Trump's military authority on Iran. Meanwhile, Trump suddenly said a new Gaza ceasefire deal is coming up soon, saying it is possible “within the next week.”

Over the weekend, Trump continued to defend Netanyahu as he faces his corruption trial, saying the US should have a say in the trial, given that they’ve given billions in aid to Israel. It comes as the news outlet Haaretz released a damning report on Israeli soldiers, admitting they were being ordered to slaughter unarmed Palestinians trying to get aid that’s alarmingly similar to Red Light, Green Light in Squid Game. Trump later posted on Truth Social, urging Israel and Hamas to “MAKE THE DEAL IN GAZA,” as more Palestinians were killed in air strikes on Saturday and Sunday. Organizers of the Glastonbury music festival said they were "appalled" by anti-IDF comments made by the punk duo Bob Vylan during their set on Saturday, as police say they were assessing the footage. According to the Washington Post, an intercepted call recorded Iranian officials saying the recent US attacks on nuclear sites were less devastating than they expected, aligning with recent intelligence and analysis reports that showed the bombings were not extensive and damaging to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. In some good news for Netanyahu, the Jerusalem District Court cancelled this week's hearings into the Israeli PM’s long-running corruption trial.

Geopolitical Upheaval - NATO Week

This week marks a win for Trump’s long-held grievance on the NATO alliance, specifically for member states to raise defence spending to more than 2% of each country’s GDP. Before this week, it was reported that the UK and NATO allies have agreed to boost defence and related areas spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. In the Hague, the NATO summit is held against the backdrop of an unstable conflict in the Middle East and a bogged-down one in Ukraine. We already have the UK pledging to commit to spending 5% of GDP on defence by 2035 and expand its nuclear deterrence by purchasing US fighter jets capable of carrying warheads. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said it was “not a difficult thing” to get members to agree to raise defence spending due to the rising threat of Russia, stressing that the American president remained “absolutely” committed to supporting the alliance.

As Trump arrived at the summit on Tuesday, the mood was tense on what would happen next to the long-standing alliance. When asked about whether he would abide by NATO’s Article 5 guarantee to come to the aid and defense of a member state if attacked, Trump said, “Depends on your definition. There are numerous definitions of Article 5, you know that, right? But I’m committed to being their friend.” During a Wednesday press conference, Trump said, “We’re with them all the way,” and branded the meeting as a victory before any talks started because of the increased security spending by fellow member states. Spain’s economy minister, Carlos Cuerpo, said his country will increase its defense spending, but not to the 5% GDP goal as many other states are doing. In an interview with Politico, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called this year’s NATO summit “the Trump summit” and credits him for pushing NATO allies to increase spending. During Trump’s rant comparing Israel and Iran like two children fighting each other, NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte referred to the American president as “daddy.” In a joint declaration, NATO allies agreed to more than double their defense spending target from 2% of GDP to 5%. They also expressed their “ironclad commitment” to come to each other’s aid if attacked, as well as confirming their support for Ukraine. Speaking of Ukraine, Trump met with President Volodymyr Zelensky and said he was “very nice” after a sideline chat at the NATO summit. Changing his tune on Russia, the US President said of his Russian counterpart, “Vladimir Putin really has to end that war. People are dying at levels that people haven’t seen before for a long time.”

The Trump Show: Series 2 - Mamdani’s Surprise Victory

This week began with a Tennessee judge ordering the release of Kilmar Abrego Garcia from jail before trial, but he is not expected to go out free due to ICE. The Supreme Court ruled on Monday to allow rapid deportations to send migrants to countries with which they have no ties, while staying a lower court order that individuals set to be deported to third countries must be given meaningful notice of where their intended destination is going to be.

On Tuesday, New York votes for its Republican and Democratic primaries, with many in the media focusing on the race between Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani on the Democratic side. Andrew Cuomo is the former New York governor who left the role in disgrace back in 2021 due to credible allegations of sexual assault by staffers, and was widely criticized for covering up COVID nursing home deaths during the pandemic. Mainstream and moderate Democrats saw Cuomo as the safe choice, despite all of the scandals plaguing the former governor. In the anti-Cuomo side, the leading candidate is Zohran Mamdani, who has run on a progressive democratic socialist campaign and has mastered the art of social media in campaigning. On policies, the New York State Assemblyman has run on freezing the rent, free city buses, universal childcare, and city-subsidized grocery stores, all funded by raising taxes on the wealthy. He has also cross-endorsed with New York Comptroller Brad Lander, who was dramatically arrested by ICE last week. Critics say his economic plans are delusional, and some have called him antisemitic over his critiques of Israel and not rejecting or denouncing the term “globalize the intifada” during an interview on The Bulwark. By the last survey conducted by Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill, Cuomo leads Mamdani 35% to 32% overall, but after ranked choice voting and all the other candidates are removed, Mamdani beats Cuomo 52% to 48%. After the voting ended, Mamdani made a shockingly good performance by winning 43.5% of the first vote to Cuomo’s 36.3%. Although New York’s ranked-choice voting system will require us to learn the results by July 1, Andrew Cuomo conceded defeat to Mamdani. In a joyful victory speech, Mamdani said, “A life of dignity should not be reserved for a fortunate few; it should be one that city government guarantees for each and every New Yorker.”

On immigration, we learned a Norwegian tourist was detained and refused entry after immigration officials unlocked his phone and found a JD Vance meme on the phone’s camera roll, while some Floridian Republicans want to build an “Alligator Alcatraz” as an immigration detention site in the Everglades swamps. The DOJ sued every federal district judge in Maryland over an order that paused any deportations that were under legal challenge in the state for 48 hours, a move experts have called an “unprecedented attack on the judiciary.” During the NATO summit, Trump said he would reveal the next Fed chair pick next week, an early move that the president hopes can undermine Jerome Powell’s power, as he still hasn’t enacted any interest rate cuts. The Department of Housing and Urban Development will move from Washington, DC, to nearby Alexandria in Virginia, the first move outside of the country’s capital by a federal agency that risks displacing the National Science Foundation. In the realm of science, RFK Jr’s newly appointed CDC panel said it will scrutinize the childhood vaccine schedule, which could change how and when kids receive shots. As Republicans launched Islamophobic and bigoted attacks on Zohran Mamdani’s win, the US President pitched in and branded the Democratic candidate as “a 100% Communist Lunatic.” In a bit of sad (not) news, Edward Coristine, more widely known as “Big Balls,” has resigned from government but is now working for the Social Security Administration.

Continuing the administration’s crackdown on any form of immigration, CNN reported that Homeland Security would close many asylum cases, putting hundreds of thousands of people at risk of imminent deportation. Prosecutors tell a judge that the US government plans to re-deport Kilmar Abrego Garcia, and wants to send him to a country that’s not El Salvador. The Russian-born Harvard scientist Kseniia Petrova was indicted on charges of smuggling, concealment, and making a false statement, stemming from a case in she flew into the US with frog embryos. Bad news for the American economy as it shrank by 0.5% in the first quarter, worse than earlier estimates had suggested. However, Trump claimed in the White House that the US had signed a trade deal with Beijing on Wednesday. The White House had to later clarify that the two parties reached an additional understanding to the “framework” agreement concerning rare earth materials. Impeding the passage of the “Big, Beautiful Bill” in the Senate, Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough rejected key Medicaid provisions included in the megabill, a major blow to Republicans who are planning to cut federal spending. In addition, the Trump regime calls on Congress to drop the “revenge tax,” after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it was no longer necessary. On Thursday’s round of Supreme Court rulings, justices allowed states like South Carolina to cut off Medicaid funding for Planned Parenthood. The newly reformed Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices to stop recommending flu shots containing thimerosal. It marks a win for RFK Jr and the anti-vax movement, which has long called for the removal of the rare but safe ingredient.

The heavily conservative Supreme Court delivered Trump a major judicial win by allowing him to partially enforce the birthright citizenship executive order, while limiting the ability of judges to block the order nationwide. In other consequential rulings, the Court ruled in support of parents seeking to opt their kids out of LGBTQ books in public elementary schools and upheld the age verification for online pornography in Texas. A giddy Trump went to the White House Briefing Room and said he would “promptly file” to advance policies such as birthright citizenship restrictions, adding that the Supreme Court decision was “amazing” and a “monumental victory for the Constitution.” Environmental groups sued to block a migrant detention center being built in the Florida Everglades, which Governor Ron DeSantis dubbed “Alligator Alcatraz.” The Canadian government is “urgently seeking more information” about the death of Canadian citizen and US permanent resident Johnny Noviello, who was found unresponsive during a detention in Miami by ICE. In higher education, the University of Virginia president resigned under pressure from Trump over the school’s DEI policies, while Harvard students at the Kennedy School of Government can study online or finish their degrees at the University of Toronto as a contingency plan. Following up on Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik’s comments that the US and China had an additional understanding on rare earth shipments, China’s Ministry of Commerce says the two sides confirmed details of the framework, adding Washington will lift countermeasures against Beijing as it will approve export application permits for controlled items. Even though US officials say more trade deals are on the way, Trump said he is “terminating” all trade discussions with Canada, citing a Digital Services Tax on American tech products. In the latest economic data, the US core inflation rate rose to 2.7% in May, as the S&P 500 closed at a record high on Friday. Although DOGE has entered the ATF with a mandate to slash gun regulations, their influence is waning as they have lost control of the process for awarding billions in federal funds. In other headlines, California Governor Gavin Newsom sued Fox News for defamation over claims that he lied about a call with the president, while Trump celebrated a peace deal between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda that was brokered by the US.

In the Senate, Republicans rushed through to get Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” passed before July 4. There were last-minute tweaks in cuts to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, and the two key holdout senators, Susan Collins and Josh Hawley, have folded and would support advancing the GOP megabill. In an act of procedural defiance, Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer said he would force the clerks to read the 1000-page megabill on the Senate floor, once the Republicans vote to proceed with the legislation. Without much surprise, the mega bill squeaked out the key procedural hurdle with a vote of 51-49. Breaking the temporary war of words ceasefire, Elon Musk called the bill “utterly insane” and repeatedly bashed the bill in the lead-up to the procedural vote. Following the vote, the budget office says the Senate bill would add $3.3 trillion to the national debt. North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis announced he is not running for re-election, a day after Trump attacked him for his “no” vote, while the president also urged the Senate GOP to overrule the parliamentarian. Aside from the Trump megabill, the White House is seeking to cut the nation’s only federal after-school program that reaches 1.4 million students across the country, the star witness in Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s deportaton trial is being freed in exchange for his testimony, while NBC News reported Trump is expected to attend the formal opening of “Alligator Alcatraz” next Tuesday.

Local News - Soft Resistance And Hard Promotions

“Soft resistance is real,” that is according to Hong Kong’s Chief Executive John Lee, who warned of “pervasive” national security risks on Tuesday. Lee said in a weekly press conference that soft resistance “is lurking across different areas and different sectors,” adding that “Some are even disguised as righteous-sounding causes, but in fact, they carry an intention to endanger national security or commit destructive soft resistance.”

On Wednesday, the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported that the League of Social Democrats (LSD for short, not related to the drug) was set to disband. LSD was one of Hong Kong’s last pro-democracy groups, founded in 2006 and formerly had representation in the Legislative Council and the District Councils. However, an electoral overhaul by Beijing in 2021 effectively barred most, if not all, opposition members from standing. During the disbandment announcement on Sunday, the left-wing group cited “tremendous political pressure,” joining the dozens of civil and political groups that have disbanded since the enactment of the National Security Law in late June 2020, now in its fifth year anniversary.

In other Hong Kong news, Jimmy O. Yang partners with the Hong Kong Tourism Board to become the latest celebrity to “tell good stories of Hong Kong.” It comes as the stand-up comedian wrapped up five sold-out shows in the city, and shared a social media video featuring some of the city’s iconic tourist attractions on Tuesday. District councillor Angel Chong, who is also the youngest district councillor in the city, has pulled out of the Miss Hong Kong Pageant. It came as criticism mounted on her competition attempt, claiming it is compromising her duty to residents. Chong said in her announcement that she made her decision to protect the council’s image. Meanwhile, the renowned Hong Kong bakery Taipan Bread & Cakes, famous for creating snowy mooncakes, has shut down, reportedly owing salaries and rent.