The Schrödinger's Ceasefire
One moment it's on, one moment it isn't
When writing this piece, the tenuous Israel-Iran ceasefire seems to be holding, if barely by a thread. But in the 48 hours leading up to it, it was total madness.
Just to give you a sense of how crazy things have developed, in nine hours, Trump suddenly announced a ceasefire that both Iran and Israel supposedly agreed to, Iran had to first deny before agreeing to it, the ceasefire magically took effect, Israel signing onto it before immediately backtracking due to alleged Iranian bombing.
Amid the unfolding chaos, it is important to recognize how bizarre the ceasefire deal is. Remember, there is no diplomatic delegation or talks that led up to Trump’s sudden ceasefire. The US President just unilaterally declared that it exists, and both sides had to scramble to react before agreeing on the deal.
Not to mention, the “ceasefire deal” does not include anything about halting Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which is a pretty big issue given America just bombed one of its biggest rivals over it.
The future of the Iran-Israel ceasefire is unclear at best, and nobody knows how it will develop or metastasize. But for your reference and interest, here is what happened from Monday to Tuesday, and the extra chaos that might have slipped through the cracks
By the beginning of the week, after examining the satellite footage, it turned out Iran’s nuclear program was not “completely and totally obliterated.” Who would have thought Trump lied!?
After last Sunday’s emergency UN Security Council meeting to discuss a draft resolution by China, Russia, and Pakistan calling for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the IAEA and the EU held emergency meetings of their own to discuss how to de-escalate a boiling-hot crisis.
Pakistan condemned Trump for bombing Iran, ironically just a day after recommending him for a Nobel Prize. With Israel and Iran continuing to trade missile strikes, Iran’s Fordow nuclear site was attacked by Israeli forces a day after the US strikes.
As Iran plans to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the US has begun urging China to prevent Iran from shutting down the key trade route. Oil prices jumped up and stock futures sank right after the US strikes, which naturally led to the US President tweeting on Truth Social: “EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!”
Meanwhile, NBC News reported Iran had warned Trump before the strikes that it might activate terrorist “sleeper cells” inside the US, which makes the fact that the counter-terrorism head is a 22-year-old college graduate even more reassuring.
Then, Qatar suddenly announced it was temporarily closing its airspace after getting information from Iran that it was about to launch missile strikes into the country. Soon after that, Iran launched missile strikes targeting the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, but was soon intercepted by Qatar’s Defense Ministry. Iran also fired missiles at US assets in Iraq. However, it quickly turned out the strikes were meant to retaliate but not escalate.
Iran said the missile attack matched the number of US bombs dropped last weekend, and Qatar said nobody was injured by the attack. That was soon confirmed by the US President, who thanked Iran for giving "early notice" on the “very weak” strikes. Trump also urged “Peace and Harmony” between Iran, the US, and Israel. Oil prices fell by more than 7% as investors dismissed a possible supply risk following Iran’s US airbase strike.
Hours later, Trump says Israel and Iran have agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire” and congratulated both countries for “having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end” what he described as “THE 12 DAY WAR.” However, according to a senior Iranian official to CNN, Iran has not received any ceasefire proposal and sees no reason for one at that time.
As more information came out, Iran's foreign minister said they would stop their attacks, as long as Israel stops its airstrikes on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Israel urged people living in more parts of Tehran to evacuate.
By Tuesday midnight, Trump said the ceasefire was “now in effect,” warning the two parties, "Please do not violate it!" Israel then agreed to the ceasefire deal, with Netanyahu saying Israel has reached its war goals to eliminate Iran’s nuclear and missile threats. However, barely moments after that bit of news, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said he had ordered the IDF to strike Tehran, claiming Iran violated the ceasefire by firing missiles at the country. Iran denied the allegations, but it didn’t stop the conflict from rebooting.
In Washington, an angry Donald Trump was furious with Iran and more with Israel, saying he’s “not happy” with America’s closest ally and said they “don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.” In the same pre-helicopter speech, Trump said he doesn’t want to see a regime change in Iran.
On Truth Social, Trump said it would be a major violation if Israel conducts any more air strikes, and China can now buy oil from Iran even though his first administration and Biden’s term imposed a range of sanctions and enforcement mechanisms designed to make it significantly harder for China to purchase Iranian oil.
The US president warned Israel to bring its pilots home “now” when Israeli warplanes were already en route. However, the attacks were agreed to be scaled back after a last-ditch call between Trump and Netanyahu. Behind the scenes, Trump told Netanyahu not to expect further US offensive action after the strikes on Iran, telling him to stop fighting and return to the negotiating table.
According to a report by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the US strikes on Iran only delayed its nuclear program by months. Trump and his team deny the reports
By nightfall in the Middle East, the ceasefire seemed to be holding as there was no evidence that either side had launched attacks, and both sides were claiming victory. In Congress, the House overwhelmingly voted against an impeachment motion regarding Trump’s actions in Iran, while the White House postponed giving classified briefings to members of Congress regarding the strikes.
Despite the bizarre way Trump is driving this, it seems there may be agreement among the belligerents to quell the conflict for now. If so, then bravo!
Desperate Donnie wannabe Dictator just spews from a fake script and bullies snd threatens until he gets what he wants- like it’s reality tv- so NOTHING is real! It’s a perverted fantasy.
Now he is on Rv addressing NATO and he is mumbling, blundering, rambling snd spewing BS, like usual but on the national stage. Embarrassing the US and making us a joke to the free world and the dictators cheer for their useful idiot.