The Next Four Years: A Survivor's Guide

Some hints from the first full week of the Trump administration

It’s just one week (Photo Credit: Internet)

This is a survivor guide to the next 1465 days until Donald Trump leaves office, looking at it from an international perspective. Because like it or not, to the American audience reading this piece, what your president is doing has ramifications to everything else.

Case in point, just this week, Chinese stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong rose following the president’s comments that he “would rather not” impose tariffs on China. In Canada, Ontario’s Conservative leader Doug Ford announced he would call early elections to have a stronger hand in dealing with Trump’s tariff threat. In the Russo-Ukrainian war, leaders from both parties are trying to flatter the ego of Donald Trump. Russia’s Vladimir Putin claimed the war would not have happened if Trump had been in charge, echoing a favorite talking point by MAGA supporters and Ukraine skeptics. Volodymyr Zelensky also tried to persuade the US president to support their side, telling Bloomberg “The end of the war should be a victory for Trump, not Putin.”

For Americans, you are either delighted by Trump’s administration for its executive orders themed around your favorite agendas, or you are dismayed by how the new policies are damaging institutions and the country’s political health. For the international community, the level of concern and/or preference for the new administration is directly correlated with how much Trump hates your country/institution/international organization

What does the week tell us so far about the second Trump administration? I would argue this week shows the three themes that many of us had envisioned before the inauguration, but it doesn’t make us feel better that we have these assumptions confirmed.

First of all, in domestic politics, Trump’s presidency has shaped up to be a retributive continuation of his campaign, this time with significantly more power at his disposal. In the past few days, Trump has removed the Coast Guard’s top admiral Admiral Linda Fagan, reassigned career officials from the Justice Department, fired independent inspectors general of 17 major agencies, as well as terminated the Secret Service details for former administration officials like John Bolton and Antony Fauci. Suffice it to say, Project 2025 is alive and well in the second Trump administration, as evidenced by a Time magazine analysis that found nearly two-thirds of the executive actions Trump has issued so far mirror or partially mirror proposals what was in the 900-page document.

Notably, Trump’s current policies are not crafted to solve particular issues, but mostly as a show to please his supporters, especially on cultural issues. For example, the president has put all federal DEI (diversity, equity, and inclusion) staff on leave, and encouraged government employees to snitch on each other if they have any suspicions of remaining government DEI programs. On this aspect, Trump’s moves have delighted the anti-woke supporters who have long ranted against such measures. Some of the most prominent defectors to Trump’s side have often cited wokeness to justify their change of mind, and even those who dislike Trump’s policies would give him credit because he helps them defeat something they hate.

The second key theme of the Trump presidency is its penchant for transactional dealings. You might have noticed big tech CEOs rallying behind Trump since his success in November, many donating millions of dollars in support of the inauguration and getting a front-row seat on January 20. For business leaders, the suck-up has massive payoffs. TikTok has publically credited the Trump team for saving the app from being banned in the US, and the company’s leader Shou Zi Chew has been a guest at Trump’s inauguration sitting next to the Director of National Intelligence pick Tulsi Gabbard. A day after Trump was inaugurated, he announced Project Starlight, an investment worth $500 billion in private sector AI infrastructure that the Financial Times reported will exclusively serve ChatGPT maker OpenAI, its CEO Sam Altman had said he has “changed his perspective” on Trump years after criticizing him on social media.

A more chilling form of transaction happened on the day Trump was inaugurated, as he pardoned nearly 1600 January 6 prisoners, some of them were violent rioters and masterminds of the attack on the Capitol. If you think Trump has put much thought into pardoning the January 6 prisoners, don’t be. Axios reported that as his staff struggled to vet through the prisoners one by one to see who should be pardoned, a frustrated president said "F--k it: Release 'em all." Regardless of what Trump was thinking behind the scenes, it sets a dangerous precedent for America ahead. It is okay to commit violence, assault police officers, and disrupt the functioning of American democracy, as long as you are doing it in the name of Trump.

On international relations, Trump’s policies are of an imperialistic fashion. Just over the past few weeks, the president has talked about buying Greenland, making Canada its 51st state, threatened tariffs on China and Europe, plans to designate drug cartels as terrorist organizations and potentially fight these forces in Mexico, ranted about taking back the Panama Canal, as well as claiming there will be “all hell to pay” in the Middle East if the hostages aren’t released. As The Economist put it, America’s imperialist era is dawning.

Historians talk about the long 19th century ending in 1914. Precisely when the 20th century ended is, in this sense, debatable. But it is over. Mr Trump is still constrained by some of America’s oldest institutions, including federalism and the courts. But he has thrown off many of the recent ones. The governance reforms after Watergate no longer apply. The consensus that America should be a benign superpower, born out of the ashes after 1945, has gone, too. And Mr Trump wants more: to see America unleashed, freed from norms, from political correctness, from the bureaucracy and, in some cases, even from the law. What’s left is something old and new, an ideology from the railroad era mixed with the ambition to plant the flag on Mars.

Out of the 19th century comes the idea that the frontier should always be expanding, including by seizing other countries’ territory. “We’re taking it back,” Mr Trump growled of the Panama Canal, in his inaugural speech. America must be “a growing nation”, he added, one that “increases our wealth, expands our territory”. Although this might reflect a passing enthusiasm, presidents have not talked like that for a century. The only one of his predecessors Mr Trump spent any time on in the speech was that “great president” William McKinley, whose term began in 1897. Mr Trump is not a reader of presidential biographies. He is not about to make bimetallism the issue of the day (though both he and the first lady do now have their own competing currencies). But it was a revealing choice.

That leaves the world with a second big problem, how to deal with the barrage of news coming from Washington? Trump World thrives on dumping a waterfall’s load of headlines to everyone’s faces, and it thrives based on that drama. For everyone to keep themselves sane over the next four years, I designed a four-tier barometer to decide how much care and anxiety should pose on each headline.

On the bottom tier are the blatantly stupid and/or accidentally hilarious headlines. For example, the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, or telling California officials something even stupider than drinking bleach to cure COVID: "The trees are loaded with water. They suck that water out of the ground ... it's called management of the floor."

The second tier is headlines that might seem serious but are designed or manipulated to distract your attention. Take the case of Elon Musk making the Nazi salute, which has garnered a surprising level of discourse on social media. Some have excused it as an accident or a one-off, which might be excused if not for the fact Musk has endorsed the AfD and other far-right parties across Europe. It might be an accidental gesture or a deliberate action that Musk decides he can get away with thanks to plausible deniability. One thing is for sure, many MAGA supporters would love to distract you with this headline from the two higher tiers of the barometer.

The third tier contains news that might not feel too important when reading it, but it has underlying themes that you should be concerned about. Even though these policies and actions might not be a big deal for you, the reader (Heck, you might agree with some of these actions or executive orders), it has significant ramifications for America and the world. One of the examples is Trump’s deliberate undermining of the federal government which was mentioned above. Other examples include leaving the WHO, a move that could have significant ramifications for global health and how the world handles the next pandemic. Even actions taken by Republican members of Congress should raise eyebrows. If Representative Andy Ogles’ resolution to amend the 22nd Amendment is successful, it would allow Trump to run for a third term, despite it being explicitly denied in the current state of the US Constitution.

Finally, the highest tier of the barometer is the headlines that can cause immediate and/or lasting impacts to the United States and/or the world. That includes pardoning the January 6 rioters, as well as ending birthright citizenship by the stroke of a pen. Birthright citizenship is enshrined in the 14th Amendment to ensure the citizenship of former slaves after the Civil War, ending it not only poses questions to millions of citizens who were descended from immigrant parents, but it also poses a direct challenge to the president’s power against the Constitution. Currently, Trump’s executive order was temporarily blocked by a Reagan-era judge who called it “blatantly unconstitutional.” But if the Supreme Court approves the president’s executive order (Don’t tell me they can’t do it, see Roe V. Wade), it implies the president has the powers of a king, giving Trump more powers than the qualified immunity case last year.

Now, the conversation inevitably turns to how should everyone react. Understandably, people are outraged by Trump’s recent actions, but it is not as productive as you think. For one, the barrage of headlines and awful decisions flowing through your newsfeeds on an hourly basis is unhealthy. I know that because yours truly has to recap the headlines around the world, and I have written more about American politics in a week than most weeks during the Biden administration. It is easy to feel demoralized, and doom-scrolling would only worsen your mental health,

Secondly, the MAGA trolls and many Trump supporters online feed on “liberal tears” (TM). Ranting about every bad Trump decision only fuels their support for the current president, making them more willing to stand by their man. I would propose an alternative motion to constant criticism: Constant mockery. Laugh at Trump, laugh at his supporters, laugh at how their pet policies of decreasing egg prices have currently seen the opposite happening, laugh at all the “fell for it again” awards, laugh at all the “f**k around and find out” moments. What you are doing is spotting the hypocrisy in many of their arguments and the flaws in voter psychology, something keenly spotted by the impeccable Jonathan V. Last of The Bulwark.

Oh Dear: Look at the Price of Eggs!

Instead of following the news on an hourly basis by scrolling on BlueSky or Twitter, sometimes news summaries can do the trick. Heck, I do it on Memeing The World, and many viewers like a broad look at the week’s headlines with a dash of comedy.

Alternatively, Ron Filipkowski from MeidasTouch has much more experience in covering the MAGA movement from top to bottom and publishes a near-daily review of American politics that is worth your time and money reading.

Today in Politics, Bulletin 56. 1/24/25

For the Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans, the mood is stale. Many feel defeated since the November election, and there has been little to no resistance by prominent liberals and never-Trumpers. On one hand, it could work as a temporary strategy. As I have noted before, one of the best ways to combat hostile populists is to do nothing and let voters face the consequences.

However, that is only temporary. At some point, the anti-Trump side needs a cogent message to the public on how they are different than Donald Trump, and provide actual policies that disaffected voters can get behind with. The biggest failure of the Biden administration is a failure of communication, and the leaders of the Democratic party need young new voices to get the message across. Whether you like AOC’s policies or not, you cannot deny she is a very effective communicator. When AOC lost the race to be House House Oversight Committee chair, Republican Representative Tim Burchett told a reporter: "I'm happy for us, because the Democrats don't realize that in their youth circle, she is a rock star."

The messaging within the never-Trump circle is also befuddled. On one side, there are more pragmatic and centrist Democrats who are advocating for a better relationship with Trump and MAGA, wanting to work together on policies they agree on while firmly opposing the worst instincts of the new GOP. On the other side, which consists of firm never-Trumpers and more progressive Democrats, disagree and insist on playing hardball. They see prominent Democrats’ cozy behavior after the election in hard juxtaposition to what they said before Trump’s win, arguing actions of Joe Biden like welcoming Trump for tea were pretty ironic when months ago the then-president called his successor a fascist.

Unfortunately for both sides, they are both right, and they need to complement each other in terms of communication. Blindly opposing Trump is now doing more harm than good, especially after 10 years since the then-candidate took the infamous escalator downstairs. On certain aspects, Democrats need to be the better person to play political baseball. But on the other hand, don’t forget what the GOP did in 2021 when the Democrats tried to extend a hand for collaboration. Suffice it to say, absolutely ignoring it. Take the advice from Charlamagne Tha God: "Treat Republicans the way they treat you."

As for the rest of us watching the drama from a safe-ish distance, there is little we can do but be aware and vigilant. Remember deep in your mind: This is not normal. We might never return to the pre-Trump era, but we do need to plan ahead on what comes next.