You might remember this bizarre comment by Donald Trump just a few weeks ago during a rally in Las Vegas, in which he changed the conversation from electric boat batteries to… sharks and electrocutions.
So we have a country that’s in trouble. We’re going to end the mandate on electric one day. They want to make all boats too. I went to a boat company in South Carolina, the boat. I said, “How is it?” He said, “It’s a problem, sir. They want us to make all electric boats.” These are boats that are from 16 to 35 or so feet, fishing boats, leisure boats, beautiful company in South Carolina, beautiful.
The guy’s been doing it for 50 years. He sells hundreds of boats every couple of months. I mean, really fantastic guy. And they use the Mercury engines and different engines in the back, no problem. They want to take that out. They want to make it all electric. He said, “The problem is the boat is so heavy it can’t float.”
I said, “That sounds like a problem.”
He said, “Also, it can’t go fast because of the weight. And they want to now have a fifty-mile or a seventy-mile radius. You have to go out 70 miles before you can really start the boat up and you go out at two knots.” That’s essentially almost like two miles an hour.
Say, “How long does it take you to get out there?”
“Many hours, and then you’re allowed to go around for 10 minutes, but you have to come back because the batteries only last for a very short period of time.”
So I said, “Let me ask you a question.”
And he said, “Nobody ever asked this question,” and it must be because of MIT, my relationship to MIT, very smart.
I say, “What would happen if the boat sank from its weight and you’re in the boat and you have this tremendously powerful battery and the battery’s underwater, and there’s a shark that’s approximately 10 yards over there?”
By the way, a lot of shark attacks lately. Do you notice that? A lot of shark… I watched some guys justifying it today. “Well, they weren’t really that angry. They bit off the young lady’s leg because of the fact that they were not hungry, but they misunderstood who she was.” These people are crazy.
He said, “There’s no problem with sharks. They just didn’t really understand a young woman swimming now who really got decimated and other people too,” a lot of shark attacks.
So I said, “So there’s a shark 10 yards away from the boat, 10 yards or here. Do I get electrocuted if the boat is sinking, and water goes over the battery, the boat is sinking. Do I stay on top of the boat and get electrocuted or do I jump over by the shark and not get electrocuted?” Because I will tell you he didn’t know the answer.
He said, “Nobody’s ever asked me that question.”
I said, “I think it’s a good question. I think there’s a lot of electric current coming through that water.” But you know what I’d do if there was a shark or you get electrocuted, I’ll take electrocution every single time. I’m not getting near the shark.
Setting aside the ridiculous idiocy of the quote, or the blatant falsehoods on boat batteries, choosing electrocution because the other option is diving near a shark is a stupid choice in the first place. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Fun fact, NOAA would be abolished under a second Trump term if he plans on executing Project 2025 because they claim it is “one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry”), sharks are not dangerous to humans!
Only about a dozen of the more than 300 species of sharks have been involved in attacks on humans. Sharks evolved millions of years before humans existed and therefore humans are not part of their normal diets. Sharks are opportunistic feeders, but most sharks primarily feed on smaller fish and invertebrates. Some of the larger shark species prey on seals, sea lions, and other marine mammals.
Sharks have been known to attack humans when they are confused or curious. If a shark sees a human splashing in the water, it may try to investigate, leading to an accidental attack. Still, sharks have more to fear from humans than we do of them. Humans hunt sharks for their meat, internal organs, skin, and fins in order to make products such as shark fin soup, lubricants, and leather.
Even if you are in the proximity of a hungry shark that does attack humans, as long as you stay calm, look directly towards the shark, and gently push on its nose when it comes too near, you are highly unlikely to be eaten.
So, if you are like Donald Trump and choose to get electrocuted instead of jumping into the shark-infested water, you just want to find the easy way out without considering the practicality and logic of the alternative. And that, in essence, is the scrambling panic by Democrats and pundits as they called for Biden to step down from re-election.
I don’t need to rehash the disastrous performance by President Biden on Thursday night’s debate stage, and there is no use spinning it as some sort of positive for the Democrats because it is intellectually dishonest. To the credit of liberal networks, nobody did what Republicans have often done, spinning lies of deceit from painfully obvious reality. However, there has been one deafening theme that came out right from the debates: The Democrats are in panic mode, and Joe Biden needs to step down from his re-election campaign.
I am not going to share links of panic porn coming from pundits and political scientists of all backgrounds, casual political observers pretending they are experts on the field, or the “I-told-you-so” vibes coming from the “Biden-must-step-down” crowd. If you have missed everything, the commentary first starts with “Democrats in disarray” (Trademark pending) quoting anonymous Democrat operatives and lawmakers fretting that the debate is terrible and everyone is going to vote for Trump because of Biden’s slurring. Then, the argument naturally turns to Biden must drop out, because he is too old and he must do it for the good of the country.
There is nothing wrong with talking about whether Biden should step down, it is productive and necessary for the political process given so much is at stake. A serious conversation about whether Biden should step down needs to happen, especially behind closed doors among the party’s establishment. However, too much political commentary is grounded in fantasy and daydreaming instead of tactical political strategy.
Before I start criticizing, I should commend all the professional and casual pundits on one thing: You have all demonstrated that you are not in a cult. I would not join in the criticism by pro-Biden supporters that all the talk is simply bed-wetting by the Democrats and the pro-democracy coalition. It is reasonable to demand a better option when the only option that can fight the personification of American autocracy is an 81-year-old man who has demonstrated all the worst-case fears his supportive critics have pointed out, and there is a level of selfishness and recklessness from the Democratic Party’s establishment and Biden’s campaign that should be worrying. Calling him “Ruth Bader Biden” isn’t wrong, especially given that American democracy and the liberal world order are at stake.
However, I have a big problem with this debate's tone. There have been three kinds of reactions by pundits that seem to sum up the whole argument. The first is the most ignorant: “OMG, I just learned Joe Biden is old and acting like an old man! Get this man off the ticket!” The second type of response is one shared by most established talking heads: “Biden sucks tonight! I’ve seen enough, Democrats, send him to a farm upstate or we will all blame you for ruining our democracy instead of that orange guy who lies all the time and is threatening retribution.” A third response goes: “I told you so! I said since the beginning of time that Biden is senile and a corpse, now you believe me huh? Send in [Insert Democrat of your choosing] and send me a bucket of flowers to repent!”
Okay, maybe the commentary isn’t as hyperbolic as I have suggested, but I am frustrated by the deafening comments of “political expertise,” self-aggrandizement, and unfounded arrogance that is irritating at best and reckless at worst.
Just to be clear, this isn’t a pro-Biden gaslight piece trying to persuade you that all the pundits are 100% wrong. I have complete respect and sympathy for the pundits who are making the case for Biden to quit his campaign and the reasoning behind (Especially given they are more involved in the political scene than me). However, I do feel the knee-jerk reaction isn’t thinking things through, and given the stakes involved, we need to take a deep breath and think.
Let’s get one thing straight from the get-go, unless Joe Biden officially announces he is not running, he will be the Democratic nominee for president, and all of the pundits and online commentators will vote for Biden in the end because Trump is the bigger threat. As Lincoln Project co-founder Rick Wilson said in reaction to the debate, the commentary is just noise.
“Now, I want to give you some tough love really quickly. The herd is very, very frequently wrong and has to re-calibrate itself seven to ten days after a panic. Stampedes happened a lot, left and right.
We're in a stampede, okay? The thing I'm going to stampede to do is to stay calm. You know, and with everything, with all that, with the entire perspective of last night's debate being terrible, Joe Biden turned in a bad performance, Donald Trump also turned in a terrible performance.”
Pundits and political analysts say Biden's stepping down is for the good of the country, and he must do that as a public servant who cares about saving democracy. In an ideal and perfect world, I would join in. But given we are living in a far-from-ideal reality, we need to consider everything strategically, which means swallowing hard sour pills because there is no other option.
First of all, all the calls don’t make Democrats look strong and independently minded, it makes them look weak and spineless. Inside the minds of many members of the pro-democracy coalition, calling for an alternative to replace Biden might sound reasonable, and it will be for most in the general public living in America and around the world. However, for the Republicans, it is a gift that keeps on giving, and this time it doesn’t need their involvement to stir the pot.
For months, Republicans have tried to convince the public through the media and the Hur investigation as part of the “Biden age plot.” Now, their political rivals are doing the job for them thanks to the lackluster debate. After Trump’s conviction, has any recognizable registered Republican called for the former president to drop out because his criminal record is a liability? Nobody did!
Now look at the Democrats, all whining and screaming for Biden to quit because he had one bad debate performance while conveniently ignoring all the previous public speeches where he defied the low expectations and the performances since the debate. Has any Democrat who called for Biden to quit did the same to Trump, who lied his head off on a variety of issues? (Looking at you, New York Times Editorial Board!)
The answer is insultingly few because we live in an asymmetrical world where Democrats have to be held up to the highest standards, while the GOP can swim in an ocean of moral depravity and nobody will barely notice because this is who they are for a long time.
Quoting Stuart Stevens, the veteran campaign operative who is a heavy critic of the Republican party he once served.
Don't day trade politics. It's a sucker's game. A guy from Queens out on bail bragged about overturning Roe v. Wade, said in public he didn't have sex with a porn star, defended tax cuts for billionaires, defended Jan. 6th. and called America the worst country in the world.
That guy isn't going to win this race.
Secondly, debates don’t matter. Hillary Clinton won all three debates in the 2016 election cycle, and she became president! Barack Obama famously lost his first debate to Mitt Romney, and he definitely became president! John Kerry crushed George W Bush in the 2004 election debates, and he became president! Bill Clinton during his re-election bid famously had a Time magazine cover portraying doom in his campaign, and he lost, didn’t he?
The fact of the matter is, no matter how bad the optics are, the general public doesn’t pay attention to debates as their key metric to determine who to vote for. If anything, the debate only consolidates people’s perception that Trump is a crazy liar and Biden is too old. Not good for the Biden campaign for sure, but it’s not the end of the world.
Not to mention, the first 2024 debate only garnered 46 million viewers on TV, nearly half of the viewing audience for the first debate in 2020. Everyone needs to take a chill pill, watch the polls barely change at all, and decide what to do next.
Thirdly, even if Biden magically announces he is ending his re-election for president tomorrow, what next? Sparing the history lesson where incumbents were defeated in the primary or decided not to run for a second term, the candidate who replaces the incumbent often loses the general election to the opposing party.
Biden’s departure will undoubtedly end up with an open seat, an internal party contest just weeks before the Democratic convention (In which anyone with ambition could announce their candidacy) because there is no obvious heir apparent, and find a “unifying candidate” to rally behind.
Who to choose then? Kamala Harris? Kamala is definitely the bookie’s favorite since she is the VP, has national name recognition, and some pundits would argue due to the fact many already portray her as the presidential candidate due to Biden’s age, Harris must take the helm. Sounds reasonable, until you remember polls have repeatedly shown Harris would perform worse in the polls if she replaces Biden. Even if she doesn’t, do keep in mind the toxic rhetoric surrounding Harris will be a blend between the anti-black racism directed towards Barack Obama and the misogynistic rhetoric directed towards Hillary Clinton’s campaign. Also a quick reminder for those who say Kamala would definitely perform better than Biden at the debate, of course, but you’re choosing someone to run for president, not the debate team representative!!!!
Okay then, you say. Not Kamala. But do you really want to abandon the chance for the first female black president and alienate a key demographic that votes Democrat consistently? If you say yes to that reckless political move, who’s your next option?
Gavin Newsom sounds nice, he looks charismatic and is good at debating. However, do you really want a governor from California, who is already heavily criticized by his right-wing opponents for so many ills in his state, to be the standard bearer of the party? Not to mention his slick politician look (or act) is definitely unattractive to rural and suburban voters in swing states desperately needed to win the election.
Some might suggest Governors Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, both winning easily in their states in the 2022 midterms and are both from crucial swing states. However, they don’t have as much national name recognition as other Democrats. Some pundits would argue they can overcome this problem, but is everyone sure about that? And even if they do conquer the perception gap, does that transfer to more support in the polls and the general election?
Other pundits have candidates of their own, all with their fantasy justifications. Watching this from a distance and reusing the shark or electrocution analogy, Democrats and pundits would rather choose electrocution because it feels more appealing than being eaten by a shark, despite not knowing if the shark really even bites people! It’s just exchanging one known problem with another unknown problem praying it won’t be as bad as the devil you know. For people who say Biden is “selfish” for not letting go of his re-election bid, they sure are selfish when not considering the consequences.
Most importantly and personally, we all had a “Biden debate aftermath” in our lives where it seems everything in the future is crumbling because of one very bad moment. In my case, that aftermath is approaching its anniversary next month, but it is the support and trust coming from people who could have chosen to do otherwise that matters. I still have trust in Biden to be the Democratic nominee and beat Donald Trump, and for all the Biden supporters who are wavering, I think they should too.
What should the campaign do right now? Serious talks must happen behind close doors with the presence of Joe Biden on whether he thinks he is up to the job, and if necessary, persuade him to stop his re-election campaign. If Biden insists he can carry on, good. Now send him to high-stakes events and face tough questioning from voters and reporters, let him participate in debates or other major political events. One big thing that is evident in the first debate is the fact Biden felt unnatural and was not pacing himself. Maybe the debate preparation over-prepped him and made the man tired, this time set the man free and let the president say whatever he likes. Joe Biden needs to be Joe Biden when he becomes the most effective campaigner. Also, the next few events will be followed closely by the press, so do keep that in mind.
If Biden does announce he will step down, I believe everyone, myself included, will respect that decision and think of what to do next from there. What we can’t do is magically project or shame Biden to quit just because of his age. It didn’t happen before, and it probably won’t happen this time.
Yes, you might feel discouraged and demoralized, thinking the universe just wants Trump to win, but that is the same mindset trump wants everyone to have in order to cruise into victory, and we cannot give that to him.
To quote political strategist Trygve Olson, Play the Game You Are in, Not the One You Wish or Want to Play.
👏👏👏👏👏👏
sensible commentary (extinguisher for the hair-on-fire)