Election Mania Fires Up

A detailed recount and meme comedy to mark our times at Week 2 of 2024 featuring source material from Star Trek Lower Decks and Hailey’s On It!

Jan 14, 2024

Headline Story - Everyone’s Eyes On Taiwan

One of the most consequential elections geopolitically was held on January 13 in Taiwan. Analysts say the run-up to the election was plastered with disinformation about the US from China as a way to influence voters' opinions in the election. The last available opinion polls (Taiwan does not allow new opinion polls to be published within ten days of the election) showed a narrow lead from the DPP candidate William Lai Ching-te. While for his main rival, the KMT’s Hou Yu-ih, his campaign faced an awkward situation over the weekend before the election, as three elders were ill after mistakenly eating laundry pods distributed at a Hou rally as a gift.

Then on Tuesday, Taiwan’s citizens were shocked after the defense ministry issued an air raid alert saying China launched a satellite that flew pass through the southern region of the island, with the English part of the message falsely translated as there was a missile flyover. However, the actual satellite being launched is China’s new Einstein probe, a powerful space X-ray observatory with contributions from ESA and the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics in Germany. It was a major embarrassment for the Taiwanese defense ministry as it generated unnecessary panic at a time when international media attention was on high alert.

Even without accidental scares, the DPP has played the foreign interference card regarding China’s influence. During the last Saturday of campaigning, William Lai warned Beijing is seeking to secure the election of a friendly government in the upcoming election. After an alleged audio leak of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen discussing inner party problems in 2019 was released last Sunday, the legislator Lo Chih-cheng, who was believed to be the person talking to Tsai in the recording, claimed the leak amounts to foreign interference. Complicating things even more, the FT reported on Thursday that Joe Biden is planning to send a delegation of former top officials to Taipei after the Taiwan election, potentially complicating diplomatic relations with China.

On China’s part, it has called William Lai a “severe danger” ahead of the election, while the supposedly more China-leaning KMT vice-presidential candidate Jaw Shau-kong called Hong Kong’s One Country Two Systems “a failure” and warned the island is on the brink of war. A few eyeballs caught onto HKU after the HKFP reported on Friday there was no 2024 Taiwan election study tour for the university’s students, in past elections HKU has always sent study tours for students to take.

January 13, Saturday was election day, which was filled more with domestic issues than cross-strait relation debates, and with young people being the key determinant to who gets to win one of the most geopolitically important elections of the year. Before the election, China warned the Taiwanese people to make the right choice this election, while the KMT conducted political distancing in the previous 24 hours on Friday after former president Ma Ying-jeou claimed that China could be trusted in cross-strait relations. The election has generated international interest and attention, but inside mainland China, discussions on Weibo (China’s version of Twitter) were limited since the content was restricted online and hashtags predominantly featured state-approved media sources. By 8:30 p.m. both Hou of the KMT and Ko Wen-Je of the TPP party had conceded defeat, effectively declaring the DPP has broken the eight-year election curse and the island’s decision to govern under William Lai, marking the DPP’s third term in power under a new ruler.

However, in bad news for Lai, his party lost control of the legislature. Among the 113 seats up for grabs, the two rival parties the KMT and TPP secured more seats than the DPP, which means Lai has to collaborate with the opposition more on issues such as defense spending, and in the short term parties need to form coalitions to elect the next chamber’s president. Some analysts point out that Ko and Hou collectively have three-fifths of the vote, which could have led to an opposition victory if their coalition had not fallen apart last November. Hours after the election win, the Chinese government made a restrained response saying the election result shows the DPP does not represent the mainstream public opinion on the island despite winning the election. Meanwhile, as other countries congratulated the result of the election, the US reiterated it does not support Taiwanese independence. On the other hand, Western media noted the win with a key focal point on election defiance, the New York Times ran with the headline “In a Setback for Beijing, Taiwan Elects Lai Ching-te as President,” Bloomberg ran with the headline “Taiwan Elects US-Friendly President Defying China’s Warnings,” and NBC News wrote the headline “Taiwan defies China, electing a new president Beijing labeled a separatist ‘troublemaker’.”

What comes next? A full-scale invasion or military option is not expected by many defense experts, but many do see China’s military incursions, economic coercions, and diplomatic severing to continue.

Headline Story - Freezing Iowa’s Political Fire Whirl

This week is the final week for GOP candidates to campaign before the Iowa caucuses on January 15. Polling indicates a big win for Trump in that state, while winter storms and cold temperatures are potential factors in persuading people to come out and vote in the state. On Tuesday, as Trump was in court expecting immunity from his 2020 election charges, multiple former Republican congressmen signed an open letter calling for swift trials against the former president published on the conservative website The Bulwark. In a revealing quote, Trump hoped there would be an economic crash before he served a second term, followed by a warning of bedlam if his criminal cases bar him from running for the White House. Trump wanted to give the closing argument himself for his civil trial on Thursday, but a judge rescinded that request and urged the former president to stick with relevant matters, which included attending a live Fox town hall as counter-programming to the GOP primary debate on CNN. But don’t you worry, Trump used his time wisely when he defied the judge and gave a brief six-minute courtroom speech, unleashing a diatribe of attacks before being told by the judge to shut up and sit down. On Friday, good news for Trump as Oregon keeps him in the primary ballot for its state. But he has to pay the New York Times and three reporters nearly $400,000 in legal costs after dismissing a lawsuit.

For the other candidates, their major problem is needing help gaining new supporters. The Washington Post published this headline on Tuesday: “Asa Hutchinson reminds Iowans who forgot him: ‘I’m still running.’” For slightly more prominent candidates, Vivek Ramaswamy appeared virtually at a campaign event by showing up on an iPad. Ron Desantis and Nikki Haley, the two candidates running for second place in the primary, debated each other on CNN Wednesday night. On the same day, Chris Christie, who ran an anti-Trump campaign, announced the end of his presidential bid at a New Hampshire event before a hot mic moment revealed he doesn’t have high hopes for Haley and DeSantis in defeating Trump. Over the final campaigning weekend, Ron DeSantis was embarrassed after a prankster went up to him and presented a participation trophy before calling him our favorite snowflake. On Saturday, the legendary gold standard Seltzer poll released its final Iowa poll before the primary starts on Monday, the poll notes Trump has a dominant 48% lead to Nikki Haley at 20% and Ron Desantis at 16%, a near 30% lead. In the meantime, Trump’s favorite other candidate Ramaswamy was ridiculed and dismissed by the former president on social media despite being closely aligned politically and have prasied the Indian American candidate in the past.

In other US news, Congressional leaders reached a $1.66tn deal on US spending levels ahead of a feared shutdown on January 20, the announcement was first made by Speaker of the House Mike Johnson on Sunday (Jan 7) a day after he invited Joe Biden to make his last State of the Union Speech on March 7 in his first term as president. GOP hardliners badly received the recent budget deal, as moderates warn not to repeat the speaker fiasco that brought down Kevin McCarthy and led to a speaker-searching spree a few months ago. Then on Saturday, congressional leaders confirmed a spending package that would fund the government until March. Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin’s well-kept secret that he was in the hospital for a few days after being diagnosed with prostate cancer at the beginning of January gained controversy, as members of the higher-ups in the military, Congress, and President Biden did not know about the hospitalization until at least four days later. The Pentagon Inspector General announced on Thursday that he would review the handling of Austin’s undisclosed hospitalization. In Florida on Monday, the state’s GOP decided to vote out its state party chairman Christian Ziegler in a special vote over rape allegations. On Capitol Hill, Hunter Biden made a shock appearance at the House committee hearing to hold him in contempt, he quickly left afterward as the GOP members of the committee couldn’t help but make complete fools of themselves. A day later, Hunter pled not guilty to federal tax evasion charges. Also, Trump ally Roger Stone was revealed by Mediaite discussing assassinating Democrat politicians such as Eric Swalwell and Jerry Nadler and they released the tape on Friday.

Headline Story - The Regional War Turns 100 Days Old

The Gaza war’s cost to journalism was laid bare last Sunday with Al-Jazeera announcing the death of its Gaza bureau chief’s son Hamza AlDahdooh, the media group also condemned Israel for assassinating the rising star in Gaza journalism in a drone strike alongside another colleague. At the same time, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken denounced Israeli ministers who called for the resettlement of Palestinians elsewhere by insisting Palestinians should stay in Gaza before visiting Israel this week to try to soothe tensions. Monday saw another potential escalation into a regional war in the Middle East as Reuters reported an Israeli strike in Lebanon has killed the senior commander Wissam al-Tawil who was positioned in an elite Hezbollah unit. Then on Tuesday, Lord David Cameron who is the UK’s foreign secretary voiced concern Israel is breaching international law in its war in Gaza.

On Wednesday, Axios got the scoop that top Biden advisor Brett McGurk met with the Qatari Prime Minister in Doha on Tuesday to discuss hostage talks and regional tensions. While in the Red Sea, the UK and the US shot down a complex Houthi Rebel attack as other actors attempted to escalate the war. Starting on Thursday, the ICJ began hearings brought by South Africa accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza, a case that has spurred controversy in the foreign policy world but would be practically impossible to enforce no matter the result due to the limited powers of the World Court.

A new escalation also occurred on Thursday regarding the Houthi Rebels, as the US and UK conducted airstrikes against the paramilitary group in Yemen, which came right after the Iranian Navy seized a US oil tanker. In response to the US-led attacks, the Houthi leader says the actions will not go without a response and warns it will trigger more attacks on commercial vessels. After that, Friday saw the US launching a second round of retaliatory strikes against the Houthi Rebels. The strikes triggered outrage in the Middle East as many analysts say the regional war is already here, but the question now is on containment. Back in Gaza, over the weekend the UN warned the region is heading into famine, a case that could be a key factor for the genocide litigation. Saturday marked the 100th day since Hamas attacked Israel, inside the country thousands mourned and called for the release of the remaining 136 hostages, London and Washington D.C. held peaceful pro-Palestine protests, but a scary moment happened near the White House breached security fences, threw bloodied dolls in symbolism to the dead children of Gaza, and yelled swear words at Biden. Reportedly non-essential White House staff were evacuated in fears of the protest escalating.

Side Story - Bolt Woes

It was anything but a good week for Boeing following last week’s Alaska Airlines incident. For context, after two plane disasters grounding the Boeing 737 Max airplane in 2019, Boeing spent recent years persuading the public and governments the 737 Max is safe, promising the 737 Max will be safer than in the past. However, last week’s Alaska Airlines 737 Max jet made an emergency landing when a fuselage suddenly opened and a door panel fell off during its flight, experts suspect the incident happened over a loose door bolt, and the FAA in the US grounded all 737 Max planes from flying.

Starting from the beginning of the week, while Boeing suffered its worst stock plunge in over a year, a Portland schoolteacher found the missing fuselage door part landing in its backyard. Even more alarming, United found more loose bolts in several of its 737 Max airplanes during inspections, adding to the pressure on Boeing to respond. On Tuesday, the National Transportation Safety Board made a statement regarding the 737 Max issues, suggesting the panel might not have been properly attached. Then the Boeing chief executive publicly admitted their mistake with the 737 Max planes and promised full transparency. On Thursday, another blow to Boeing as the FAA is officially investigating whether the company complied with safety rules and conformed with designs on the infamous Alaska Airlines flight. A day after opening formal investigations, the FAA also announced increased oversight of Boeings manufacturing operations through auditing. Saturday was another bad day for Boeing after one of its 737-800 planes had to return to Japan after discovering a crack in the cockpit window.

Side Story - Post-etic Justice

A drama series on postal service accounting might not be the national political conversation starter any had thought, but days after the broadcast of Mr. Bates vs the Post Office on the UK broadcaster ITV starting on January 1, it has reignited public attention to the worst miscarriage of justice in British history and has reached right into the highest levels of government.

It’s a rare instance where a national blockbuster headline isn’t something of international attention. In an insultingly brief nutshell, it involves a faulty IT system named Horizon operated by the Japanese company Fujitsu that has led to wrongful convictions of hundreds of postal workers in the UK between 1999 to 2015. Journalists at Computer Weekly and Private Eye exposed doubts about the IT systems and over the subsequent years, people like the retired sub-postmaster Alan Bates have fought to overturn wrongful convictions that have contributed to addiction, illness, and suicides of victims and their families.

After gaining prominent attention from the ITV drama, the Metropolitan Police announced they are investigating potential fraud offenses stemming from the post office scandal. At the same time, more than 1.2 million signatures were made urging Paula Vennells, who was one of the main players involved in the Horizon IT scandal to hand back her CBE awarded to her for her work in the postal service. Then on Tuesday, Vennells did just that by announcing she would be handing the CBE back after the mounting public pressure. On the political side, Rishi Sunak announced on Wednesday to pass legislation that would quash the convictions of the wrongly convicted post office operators, saying the legislation will “make sure those convicted are swiftly exonerated and compensated.” Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats leader Ed Davey’s role as postal affairs minister between 2010 and 2012 was put into question as he refused to apologize for his involvement in the scandal. David Cameron claimed he did not recall being briefed on the post office scandal as Prime Minister of the time but apologized for the appalling miscarraige of justice.

However, many post office justice advocates and the Private Eye editor Ian Hislop, see the UK government’s actions as opportunistic given it is an election year in Britain, and the Conservative government knew and ignored the postmasters by giving Vennells the CBE in 2019.

Side Story - Lunar Setbacks

It was not a good week for NASA and Moon fans. Firstly, NASA launched its first commercial moon lander, the Peregrine, on Monday abroad the Vulcan Centaur, which was supposed to be the first lunar lander since the Apollo missions. However, problems with the solar panels, broken valves, and the excess loss of propulsion fuel meant that a soft landing was impossible and NASA had to abandon the landing process and decide on something else to do with the spacecraft. In the end on Saturday, Astrobiotic, the moon lander’s builder, said the Peregrine will burn up in the Earth’s atmosphere when it meets its fiery end. Then on Tuesday, NASA announced the Artemis II and III missions will be each delayed one year later, with the manned flyby of the Moon delayed until no earlier than September 2025, and the Artemis III mission which features a lunar lander will happen in 2026. The reasons cited are for the safety of the astronauts, which NASA pointed out there were still problems with the spacecraft the astronauts would be onboard. But for NASA’s chief Bill Nelson, despite the setbacks, he still believes China won’t beat the Artemis astronauts to stick their boots back on the Moon. In other Moon-releated space news, scientists say Earth’s natural satellite is now in a new epoch thanks to human activity, calling it the lunar anthropocene.