Down With Assad, What's Next?
The rebel offensive happened swiftly, the Assad regime collapsed all at once
The week between December 2 and December 8 is no stranger to political destabilization: South Korea had a six-hour martial law declaration that led to a failed impeachment motion, France lost its prime minister in a no-confidence vote, and Romania annulled its first-round presidential election results due to election interference.
However, the most consequential geopolitical shakeup has to be the downfall of Bashar al-Assad after 24 years in power, thanks to a coalition rebel group called the “Military Operations Command” that has caught everyone by surprise.
The Syrian civil war and its spiraling conflict have been a lot. Long story short, following Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s brutal crackdown on the pro-democracy movement ignited by the Arab Spring, it triggered an armed insurrection and parts of it evolved into an Islamist uprising. As the conflict worsened, the relationship became a sprawling mess.
The opposition forces – decentralized, made up of different ideologies, but with a common goal of toppling Assad – were supported in various ways by foreign powers including neighboring Turkey, regional giants Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as the United States.
As the anti-government forces grew, Syria’s allies Iran and Russia stepped up their support. On the ground, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as well as its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah helped fight the armed rebel groups. In the skies, the Syrian Air Force was bolstered by Russian warplanes.
Extremist Islamists including al Qaeda took an interest in Syria, taking up a common cause with the moderate Syrian opposition who did not welcome jihadist involvement.
But by 2014 the extremists dominated and ISIS began sweeping across the country. Fearing Syria would become a permanent terror hotbed, an international coalition led by the US stepped in with a focus on eliminating the group but without confronting the Syrian regime.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – a US partner made up of Kurdish fighters - fought against ISIS, effectively ending the group’s territorial existence.
TLDR: A lot of people are invested in this war.
For years, after Assad had the support of Putin’s Russia and Iran, the civil war had mostly remained at a painful stalemate. However last week, Syrian insurgents formed a new coalition and tested its strength by breaching Aleppo. Friday saw rebel forces blowing up two car bombs and clashing with government forces before easily taking the largest city in Syria, the first opposition attack since 2016 when Russian forces helped Assad retake the northwestern city. In the lead-up to the big surprise, the same insurgents approached the city by seizing several towns and villages.
This week, Assad’s forces tried to fight back as Russian warplanes joined Syrian authorities in launching strikes against the emerging forces. Tuesday only saw worse fighting in northwestern Syria, before the rebels had set their sights on the city of Hama on Wednesday. Just a day later in Hama, the Syrian army announced in a televised announcement that it had withdrawn from the city after rebels entered from multiple directions, a massive humiliation for Assad’s regime as it was a government stronghold.
By Saturday, Iran began evacuating military equipment and officials from Syria, while rebels had already taken over the strategic city of Homs. At the same time, the rebels claim they were trying to encircle the capital Damascus, which the country’s official army accused them of trying to spark a panic. Hours later, as US intelligence suggested rebels are capturing Damascus district by district in the outskirts of the city, observers predict Assad’s regime might fall within days. Turned out, it only required hours.
On early Sunday, residents reported gunfire as the rebels officially entered Damascus, Assad’s forces abandoned the city’s international airport, while state media announced the dictator had fled Syria to an undisclosed country. As the rebels declared they had seized Damascus, it marked the official end of the Assad family’s 50-year-long regime in Syria.
If the rebels want to thank their lucky stars, their gratitude might go to unlikely sources. Thanks to both the Russo-Ukrainian War and the conflict surrounding Israel against both Hamas and Hezbollah, Russian and Iranian forces are strained fighting their own battles. Specifically to Hezbollah, some observers suggest the reason the rebel forces decided to strike now is due to the recent Lebanon ceasefire deal, which provided a narrow window as Iran’s proxies were spread out thin. Not to mention Turkey’s potential influence in providing intelligence and assistance to these rebel forces, which propelled them to their victory.
As events continue to evolve, everybody should not be immediately excited about what the rebel forces have to offer. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the leading party of the rebels, was a former al Qaeda affiliate in Syria. At the same time, its leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani was formerly involved with ISIS and al Qaeda before switching sides years ago. Even though the HTS has seen signs of moderation and genuine pragmatism by vowing elections after taking power, and both the country’s prime minister and opposition parties vow to cooperate and potentially trigger elections, concerns still linger on whether the country could descend into an Islamist takeover that could spread across the Middle East.
Syria is a hot potato nobody wants to touch, president-elect Trump said on Saturday that the US should stay out of the Syrian conflict, declaring “THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT” on social media. As CNN noted, it has great international ramifications that nobody involved in this conflict wants.
Western and Arab states, as well as Israel, would like to see Iran’s influence in Syria curtailed, but none wish for a radical Islamist regime to replace Assad. For Russia, Syria’s fall could mean losing its closest Middle Eastern ally and undermining its ability to project power while it fights a war in Ukraine. For Iran, it could shatter its so-called Axis of Resistance, comprising allied states and militias.
The fear by political observers is that rebel forces would only cause more uncertainty in a region already in upheaval. For the past few years, regional forces have tried to reapproach Assad’s regime after years of isolation. The worst-case scenario now is that Syria could become the next Libya or Iraq, and its destabilizing effects could have a spillover effect in neighboring countries.
But there is one thing worthy of celebration, and that is the fall of Bashar al-Assad. There are the obvious ones, from his actions in reaction to the Arab Spring, launching a brutal civil war that led to one of the worst mass displacements and refugee crises in recent years, to using chemical weapons against his people. But we should not forget the other details that are worthy of condemnation.
Human Rights Watch noted that Assad’s security services had subjected “hundreds, including returning refugees, to arbitrary arrest and torture.” Amnesty International reported the government is involved in denying civilians access to humanitarian aid. A recent UN Human Rights Office report criticized the Syrian government for playing a part in “arbitrary detention, torture and ill-treatment, sexual and gender-based violence, enforced disappearance and abduction” of returning Syrians. Just last year, a French court issued an arrest warrant for the Syrian dictator for complicity in war crimes, specifically over the use of sarin gas in two attacks that killed thousands of civilians.
Inside Syria, there is already footage of celebrations as the Assad regime finally crumbles. We will have to deal with the consequences in the weeks and months since, but tonight, a sigh of relief and joy for many Syrians who were affected by the brutal dictatorship.