Just after 5 p.m. in a New York courtroom, one word repeated 34 times reverberated through America, the world, and history: “Guilty.”
In a historic day for the rule of law, American democracy, and the strength of institutions, Donald Trump was found guilty of all 34 counts relating to falsifying business records to cover up his affair with adult film star Stormy Daniels. We don’t have filmed footage reacting to the verdict since it is not permitted in court, but the New York Times described it as such.
As Mr. Trump learned his fate on Thursday, he showed little emotion, shutting his eyes and slowly shaking his head while a hush descended over the courtroom. But when he emerged, holding his jaw tense, the former president spoke to the assembled television cameras. He declared that the verdict was “a disgrace” and, with a somber expression, proclaimed: “The real verdict is going to be Nov. 5, by the people,” referring to Election Day.
Remember, Trump’s 34 counts were not convicting him of having an affair with Stormy Daniels, or convicting him based on the fact that he mishandled business affairs. The deeper meaning of the verdict boils down to the fact that Donald Trump, in the late stages of the 2016 presidential campaign, sought to hide stories of his affair through a “catch-and-kill” scheme by the National Inquirer and payments through his then-lawyer Michael Cohen to bury the story that could influence voters’ decisions deliberately, and likely the outcome of the 2016 election.
Just weeks ago when the case began its opening statements, many were unhappy that the hush money trial was the only legal case Trump would get before the election. After all, the two federal cases concerning classified documents and the January 6 Capital Riot have a more solid legal basis in convicting the former president. Many saw the New York case as the weakest among the 4 prosecutions (Including the Georgia election case), and some were concerned that a rogue juror could throw the case to a hung jury, or worse, acquittal which would have been political gold for the former president running on retribution against the “deep state.”
For Trump, his felony convictions certainly carries potential political baggage alongside him throughout the rest of the election, but it does not mean he couldn’t run in the election since the constitution did not specify whether felons can or cannot run for office. Trump, who resides in Flordia, technically can vote for himself in the upcoming election thanks to some very specific state legislation. If a person was convicted in another state, Flordia law suggests that the defendant will have to follow the law in the convicted state. Given the state he is convicted in is New York, Trump will be able to vote as long as he stays out of prison. However, in the case that Trump retakes the White House, he could not pardon himself given the hush money case was brought by state prosecutors, not federal prosecutors. The woman with the power to pardon, Governor Kathy Hochul, has already announced that a pardon is off the table.
Now, we wait. Judge Juan Merchan will sentence him on July 11. Theoretically, Trump’s charges would be able to send him to prison for four years. Realistically, he would probably get probation or a symbolic decision like house arrest. However, some analysts look at Trump’s actions like sending his loyal supporters to break the gag order for him or deliberately doing that on social media, in juxtaposition to Judge Merchan’s restraint after warning Trump that breaking his gag order more than 10 times would mean prison time, and deduce that the judge will bundle up his potential jail sentence under the hush money case with the additional gag order violations.
Of course, Trump can appeal the decision, and of course he did right afterwards. All of this furthermore proves that Trump probably would not see the end of a jail cell, at least this year. But the tag of convicted fellon will stay on for the rest of his life and posthumously.
It should be noted that Merchan’s sentence date of July 11 is just four days before the opening of the Republican National Convention (Or RNC for short) on July 15 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Without a doubt, Trump would be anointed the GOP candidate, and the new label of “convicted felon” will have great impacts.
Despite the punditry and analysis, the conviction is a bigger deal than most expect. Sure, those who hate Trump won’t need the new information to persuade them to vote against him, and the same logic applies to the fervent MAGA supporters. Case in point, almost all Republican figures have denounced the verdict as a sham and undermined the justice system in the US. One of the rare exceptions, Governor Larry Hogan, posted on social media saying “I urge all Americans to respect the verdict and the legal process,” and noted “we must reaffirm what has made this nation great: the rule of law.” Just minutes later, Trump’s senior campaign advisor Chris LaCivita replied: “You just ended your campaign.”
Before the verdict was announced, a poll conducted by NPR suggested that the hush money trial is unlikely to swing most people’s votes, but it is those who could be persuaded that counts. Moderate Republicans, undecided voters, and the double-haters who both dislike Joe Biden and loathe Donald Trump, are now facing a stark reality: They could either vote for a Democrat president that they have policy disagreements, or a convicted fellon for president.
If based on past polling and indicators, the felon conviction could cost Trump 2% of the vote. It might not seem small, but it amounts to more than 1 million voters. Given this election would be decided on the margins, especially in the key swing states, this is a big deal.
The Biden campaign now needs to strike the right balance: Hammer Trump hard as a convicted felon and a threat to democracy, and not overreach it in a manner that makes many believe Trump’s false claim is a political persecution by the Biden administration.
Regardless of future developments, this is a moment of American history that everyone will remember, and future generations would study this day in the history books. But it might be at November, that the history books would get a bigger note out of.
Here is the historic moment, as portrayed on the news.
And here is the video reporting/analysis.