Canada Strong

The Liberals defied political gravity that seemed dead set a few months ago

The winner of the night (Photo Credit: CBC News)

On Monday, Canadian voters voted to keep the Liberals in power for a fourth consecutive term, under the new Prime Minister, Mark Carney.

It marked a stunning turn of fortune for the Liberal Party in Canada, which was widely seen to be electorally dead in the water just three months ago due to the unpopularity of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Much of the victory goes to one man down south: Donald Trump. Despite concerns over hot-button issues like the cost-of-living, housing, and climate change, Donald Trump’s trade war against Canada and his repeated “joking” threats of annexing the country as the US’s “51st state” have united Canadians in opposition to the American president, rallying behind the slogan “Elbows Up.” Originating from Gordie Howe’s (aka Mr. Hockey in Canada) signature move of keeping his elbows up in the corners to ward off belligerents on the opposing team, the gesture was popularized by Canadian actor Mike Myers and promoted by political figures such as the then-NDP (New Democratic Party) MP Charlie Angus.

Making his last-minute pitch to the Canadian electorate, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social making the case to elect him as leader of Canada: "Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America."

Following the resignation of Justin Trudeau, Canada’s Liberal party has witnessed an ascendancy in the polls never seen before in Canadian politics, if not global politics. But that sudden rise isn’t just because of the US President. Trudeau’s resignation allowed Mark Carney, a former central banker for both Canada and the UK, to step in and take the reins.

Being the luckiest politician in recent political history, Mark Carney became the Liberal Party leader a few weeks ago with an overwhelming 85% of the vote. Serving as the head of the Bank of Canada after the 2008 financial crisis and the Bank of England during its Brexit years, Carney has portrayed himself as a fixer who knows how to repair a broken country. In recent days, Carney’s response to Trump’s tariff threats has cemented a “Captain Canada” image for his supporters, while one went so far as to call him “big daddy” during a campaign rally.

As someone who was never elected to public office, Liberals see Carney as untainted by association with the Trudeau government, and he has actively dismantled some of the previous Liberal administration’s policies, like the controversial consumer carbon tax (A hot-button issue that boosted Poilievre’s rise in the past few years). However, Carney’s weakness in French has sparked jabs and jokes on his behalf.

One more factor that allowed the Liberals to get their victory is due to the lack of support for the smaller parties. The New Democratic Party, a left-wing progressive party that has usually siphoned off votes from the Liberals, has seen a dramatic drop in the polls. Alongside both the Green Party (Led by Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault) and the regionalist Bloc Québécois (Led by Yves-François Blanchet, the three parties only got a vote share of roughly 14%.

By 10 p.m. Ottawa time, both CBC News and CTV News project a Liberal government, a rare achievement for a ruling party to get a fourth consecutive mandate. An hour later, Carney won his seat in Ottawa’s Nepean district for the first time, clearing the pathway for him to become PM. At the 11 p.m. mark, CTV News projected a Liberal minority government.

After NDP leader Jagmeet Singh conceded in the contest in his riding of Burnaby Central, he announced he is stepping down as leader of his party. Meanwhile, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre conceded and congratulated his opponent for the win, noting the party has gained at least 20 seats and won the highest share of the vote since former prime minister Brian Mulroney was re-elected. At the time of writing, he is trailing behind his Liberal opponent by 4 points in the district he has held since 2004, when he became the youngest MP during that election.

In the Liberal camp, Chrystia Freeland says her party’s leader ran “an astonishing campaign” that resulted in a “fantastic result,” despite not being able to win a majority.

During Mark Carney’s victory speech, the PM first congratulated the other party leaders for their “service to Canada.” After thanking his family, Carney told his supporters, “I'm guided by humility, ambition, and unity.”

Talking about the US and Trump’s threats of tariffs and annexation, Carney said America "wants our land, our resources, our country" to shouts of “Never” by the audience, the PM added “President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us, that will never ever happen.”

The Canadian leader then struck a somber tone, saying, “Our old relationship with the US, based on steadily increasing integration, is over.” Carney added, “We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we must never forget the lessons. We have to look out for ourselves and take care of each other.” Calling the end of the old relationship with America a “tragedy,” the Canadian PM promised to build better ties with Asia and Europe.

In a bid to motivate the Canadian people, Carney vowed his "government will work for and with everyone,” adding that “We can give ourselves far more than the Americans can ever take away. The coming days and months will be challenging and will call for some sacrifices. But we will share those challenges by supporting our workers.”

What does this mean? It shows how Donald Trump can be used as a toxic political brand, at least in other countries.

Throughout the campaign and the years preceding it, Pierre Poilievre ran on a low-tax, small government platform, gaining wide support from disgruntled Canadians for his combative rhetoric against the “disastrous woke” policies during the Trudeau years. By promoting “common sense” politics, Poilievre has engaged in populist culture war-style language while avoiding being too extreme for the liberal-leaning Canadian electorate.

Promising an end to the “lost Liberal decade,” Poilievre’s campaign was dogged by calls of “Maple MAGA” due to his “Canada First” slogan and similar rhetoric to Donald Trump, a fact not lost on the Liberals, who have spent much of their campaign advertisements linking the two right-wingers together. Poilievre has never formulated a strong response or rebuke to nicknames of “Maple MAGA,” and that has cost him a possible Conservative win.

If the anti-Trump global electoral trend is real, we are going to see the same formula in Australia this Saturday: An incumbent government buoyed by Trump’s engagement in global politics, facing the same hot-button issues of the cost-of-living and housing, and an opposition leader who has been linked with the US president. What could go wrong?

At the same time, a small downer note for optimistic liberals everywhere, at least those who despise Trump’s politics: Canada could be an outlier. Electorally, Canada’s voting position has mostly been liberal-leaning. However, that doesn’t translate to forever ascendency. In the UK, following a landslide win by the Labour Party, some British voters seem to be turning to the far right. Before the local elections on May 1, election guru Sir John Curtice said Britain could be facing its biggest political shake-up in 100 years, as the far-right Reform UK’s rise would threaten the Labour-Conservative duopoly that had dominated politics for a century.

Nonetheless, Canada has shown a defiant move against Donald Trump by voting in their interests. How Carney will fight Trump is something that his country, and many around the world, will be watching for the next few years.